China has drawn up plans to minimize losses in Venezuela and fine-tune its broader overseas investment strategy after the United States captured the Latin American country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, on January 3.
Since the US military operation in Venezuela, the Chinese government has been busily assessing the situation and calculating potential losses to its economic interests.
On Wednesday and Thursday, Chinese officials, media and commentators started expressing their views, showing that Beijing has finished its assessment.
In general, Beijing regrets having put too many eggs in one basket and having been too ready to believe that its investments in Venezuela would face minimal risks under international law. It also admits that it had underestimated the Trump administration’s ambition in the Western Hemisphere.
Some commentators are saying that, in the short run, China wants to ensure it can continue receiving crude oil from Venezuela, which still owes it about US$10 billion to US$20 billion. In the middle and long term, China may seek to sell certain fixed assets in Venezuela to Western firms or form partnerships with them to limit losses.
The commentators’ analysis has come after US President Donald Trump said Tuesday that interim authorities in Venezuela would turn over to the US between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil. These products are worth US$2.75 billion at current prices.
“Trump wants about US$2 billion worth of oil. If that’s the case, things can go on as long as China can get the oil it paid for in advance through investments,” Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), told Asia Times in an interview. Tangen is an American citizen who has lived in Beijing for two decades and was a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute from 2022 to 2025.
“We’re talking in excess of US$60 billion of Chinese investment in Venezuela over these years, across projects, not just oil but also other infrastructure projects,” he said, He listed some relevant factors. “The Maduro government is still nominally there. The Vice President has assumed office. The same cabinet is there. No one has resigned, and no one has physically entered the country to take assets,” he said. “The question right now is the blockade. Right now, no shipments are going in or out because of the blockade.”
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He pointed out that only about 2 to 4% of China’s imported oil came from Venezuela, and this can be sourced elsewhere.
“I don’t think China has lost anything yet, but if it does happen, China still has cards to play, and it has done so effectively, especially with rare earths,” said Tangen.
“While China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will suffer a tactical setback, the strategic effect will be the opposite,” he said. “The US actions set in motion a powerful wave of increased distrust of Washington across the Global South, validating China’s warnings about US unilateralism.”
He added that Trump’s “Monroe Doctrine 2.0” to exclude “non-Hemispheric competitors” is a long-term gift to Chinese diplomacy as it provides “irrefutable, real-time evidence of Beijing’s long-standing narrative that the US is an unreliable and predatory power that substitutes raw force for rules and unilateral diktats for cooperation.”
Highly uncertain situationResponding to questions on Venezuela at a regular press briefing on Thursday, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong said China’s willingness to further deepen economic and trade cooperation with Venezuela remains unchanged.
“China-Venezuela economic and trade cooperation is cooperation between sovereign states, protected by international law and the domestic laws of both countries,” he said. “No other country has the right to interfere.”
He added that the United States’ actions amounted to hegemonic behavior that seriously violated international law, infringed Venezuela’s sovereignty, and threatened peace and security in Latin America.
“China’s economic and trade cooperation with Latin American countries has always been guided by the principles of equality and mutual benefit. We do not seek spheres of influence, nor do we target any third party,” he said. “Strong economic complementarity forms the solid foundation of China–Latin America cooperation, which is characterized by openness, inclusiveness, and win-win outcomes.”
He said China will continue to work with Latin American countries in solidarity to address changes in the international landscape, carry out economic and trade cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, and achieve shared development.
Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation (CAITEC) under the Ministry of Commerce, said Thursday that China has substantial investments in Venezuela and imports oil from the country, placing high importance on years of economic ties.
“China will do everything possible to safeguard its economic interests and overseas rights there,” he said. “Although the situation remains highly uncertain, China will take necessary actions to defend its interests and rights.”
‘Law of the jungle’When the Trump administration said in its National Security Strategy on December 4 that the US would strategically refocus on the Western Hemisphere, many Chinese commentators initially responded with mockery, arguing that the US was no longer wealthy or capable enough to sustain military dominance simultaneously in the Indo-Pacific, Europe and its own backyard.
That assessment has since shifted sharply, with commentators now acknowledging that Maduro’s capture has had a significant negative impact on Chinese investments in Venezuela and across Latin America.
A Beijing-based columnist surnamed Xu says in his article that China’s long-running oil-for-loans arrangements with Venezuela have left Beijing heavily exposed.
“Since 2007, China has provided Venezuela with US$60 billion in loans. At the end of 2025, more than US$10 billion was still outstanding,” Xu says. “The debt is repaid with crude oil, requiring Venezuela to ship about 610,000 barrels a day to China.”
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Xu says that with Maduro’s arrest, China could face substantial losses. He warns that Chinese firms have invested billions of US dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector, including large-scale drilling platforms and upstream oil projects, many of which could be forced to halt, while daily crude oil shipments used for debt repayment could be disrupted.
Such disruptions, he adds, would force refineries in eastern China to seek alternative supplies, potentially driving up oil prices and fuel costs. Besides, a range of Chinese-invested infrastructure, manufacturing and telecommunications projects in Venezuela would face heightened default risks.
“This incident has delivered an almost humiliating lesson to all countries committed to peaceful development, and that is: The ‘law of the jungle’ has never truly gone away,” says a Henan-based writer. “When a country possesses absolute military supremacy, the United Nations Charter and international law become little more than pieces of paper in its eyes.”
He says China should:
- rely on commercial law, arbitration and diplomatic pressure to protect its assets in Venezuela.
- use platforms such as the United Nations to rally international opinion against the US interference.
- consider asset sales, partnerships or conditional exits to limit losses in Venezuela.
- accelerate investment in politically stable, friendly and resource‑rich countries to lower risks.
He adds that Beijing may, to some extent, have underestimated the United States’ determination to preserve its hegemony, while this incident reminds China that it must boost its military power to protect its overseas assets.
Read: US isn’t winning trade war despite drop in its imports from China
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
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